Bearish (US CeFi Compliance Costs):  The 2026 tax season marks the first mandatory filing of IRS Form 1099-DA  for custodial brokers. While this imposes heavy compliance Capex on centralised exchanges, the April 2025 repeal of DeFi reporting rules has created a permanent regulatory moat, incentivising retail capital to migrate toward non-custodial protocols. Bullish (APAC Revenue Expansion):  Hong Kong has officially pivoted from a spot-only regime to a high-yield institution